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'Bull market distribution has begun' – 5 things to look out for this week in Bitcoin

6 min reading

Analysts are delighted with a surge towards the weekly close as "Moonvember" seems likely to continue-Will anything spoil bulls' fun?

As bulls save the day and the week at the last minute, Bitcoin (BTC) initiates a new week with a sprint towards all-time highs.

With Bitcoin rising back to $66,000 shortly before the weekly end, a week of obliquely BTC price activity came to an end just in time for the weekly close.

It's a classic approach that's become all too recognisable in recent weeks, and bullish results are again the centre of attention.

Monday has yet to set the tone for the third week of "Moonvember," which still has a price target of around $100,000 at the end of the month.

Let's take a glance at five factors that could impact the price of Bitcoin in the next few days

Bears have no place in a weekly close

Bitcoin did not disappoint those who were concerned about what might happen at the weekly closure on Sunday.

Following a week of sideways, BTC/USD classically rose to the occasion, sealing a new all-time high weekly candle that drove it to $65,500.

The $1,000 gain came at the last moment, which has been indicative of recent weeks' activity.

As a result, Bitcoin closed the week above a multi-month trend that had previously been considered a significant test of overall strength.

The close was remarkable for yet another reason, according to renowned analyst TechDev: it came above a 1.618 Fibonacci level, replicating action that served as a launch during both the 2013 and 2017 bull runs.

“You ready for what’s coming? I personally am not betting on this time being different for Bitcoin,” he added in a separate Fibonacci post.

Others contended that the Taproot soft fork deployment on Sunday had not been completely recognised. Major upgrades have been accompanied by considerable rising prices, and so was the situation with Segregated Witness ("SegWit") in 2017.

“The market has not priced in the massive Bitcoin Taproot upgrade,” Charles Edwards, CEO of investment firm Capriole, posted.

$135,000 is still up in the game

What do you think of analyst PlanB's end-of-month "worst-case scenario" Bitcoin price forecasts, he's keeping to his evaluations.

PlanB currently says that $98,000 by Dec. 1 and $135,000 by Jan. 1, 2022, are still attainable goals after correctly guessing BTC's monthly close almost exactly for three months in a row.

He's not alone; according to reports, various sources forecast the price to rise to at least $85,000 in the upcoming weeks.

PlanB's stock-to-flow models are accompanied by other research indicating simply how cyclical Bitcoin has been, even before 2013.

Last week, one prediction stated that while Bitcoin would hit a new high of $250,000 in January, it would inevitably contradict one of the stock-to-flow models.

"Bull market distribution has commenced."

Can this be the start of the end for the Bitcoin bull market this cycle?

It looks like Bitcoin has entered its final, but most turbulent, bullish chapter, depending on what long-term holders (LTHs) are doing.

LTH investors have stopped net accumulating and are now disassociating their coins, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which was reported by analyst William Clemente.

This "selling into strength," which is characteristic of bull run tops, is the first net decrease in LTH holdings since April, as BTC/USD hit highs of$64,900, which remained the maximum for six months.

“Long-term holders buy BTC into weakness and sell into strength,” Clemente commented.

The previous time, in Q4 2020, LTHs started selling before Bitcoin's remarkable price run-up, with distribution peaked and then dropping before the all-time high of $64,900 was attained.

Hash rate returns to all-time highs

The hash rate is one component of Bitcoin that is hitting all-time highs this week.

The main network fundamental is currently evaluating what it did in late April to early May, after a quick but extended recovery after its crash five months ago.

The hash rate is around 168 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to data from the live monitoring source MiningPoolStats, eliminating surges and troughs in the raw data.

The level of advancement since miners started migrating en masse away from China is depicted.

Although hash rate, which defines the computing power allocated to mining, can only be approximated instead of measured properly, the metric is about to embark on its first venture into unknown territory in over six months.

According to reports, complexity, possibly the most significant indicator of Bitcoin's inner strength, is also rebounding to all-time highs.

Sunday's increase was 4.7%, bringing it the ninth consecutive increase in difficulties.

"Signs of froth"

Traditional markets, beyond  Bitcoin, are starting to unsettle and not just investors.

Raghuram Rajan, the former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, highlighted the concern about excessive stock growth at a conference last week.

“There are obvious signs of froth,” he spoke about the Nomura-Wolfe basket of popular U.S. equities, which has been quoted in the Financial Times and other publications.

Options are now witnessing serious volume and the leverage that comes with it, in what will seem more like Bitcoin throughout periods of strong price growth.

In the meantime, the FT cited Erik Knutzen, a chief investment officer of investment manager Neuberger Berman, as stating, "Everything seems crazy, there are bubbles here, bubbles there, everywhere."

Though November is traditionally a strong month for both traditional financial and cryptocurrency industries, the approach merely adds to existing suspicions about stocks' "up only" character.

The challenge for Bitcoiners is the overall correlation between the two despite recently breaking away on its own, BTC can still be affected by unexpected shifts in sentiment elsewhere.

Tesla, for example, dropped in lockstep with Bitcoin last week as a result of CEO Elon Musk's 10% shares sold out.

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