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Bitcoin futures ETF debuts with highest “natural” volume for first day of $1 billion

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Bitcoin Strategy Exchange Traded Fund (BITO) ProShares had the highest “natural” volume on the ETF's first day, hitting over $1 billion by the end of the opening day.

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Bitcoin Strategy Exchange Traded Fund (BITO) ProShares had the highest “natural” volume on the ETF's first day, hitting over $1 billion by the end of the opening day. It's in second place, just behind the American carbon emissions readiness ETF Blackrock, which booked $1.16 billion in volume when it debuted in April. The ProShare Bitcoin-based futures ETF was launched on October 19 on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) with a starting price of $40.88. BITO ended the day at $41.94, according to TradingView, with a total of 24,313 million shares changing hands for a first-day volume of more than $1 billion.

Regarding BITO's opening day presentation, Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balcunas tweeted that the ProShares ETF is probably the largest in terms of "natural" or "low interest" terms. Balchunas said the U.S. Blackrock Carbon Transition Preparedness (LCTU) ETF in April was "unnatural" because it was run by a "premeditated giant investor". LCTU's daily volume also dropped to between $2 million and $6 million in the days following its launch from scale.

A reported first day of BITO's $570 million inflow indicates that the ProShares ETF can be described as the industry's strongest one-year net flow for the market's first single-commodity ETF in 12 months. According to FactSet, the first two commodity ETFs to lead the pack were gold and silver, with annual inflows of $3 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively. Excluding commodities, the largest yearly inflow for ETP was $5.351 billion for Invesco QQQ Trust.

Wondering how big the new Bitcoin ETF futures are?

The white paper we submitted to the SEC last week has some context. For example, here is a table of net flows for the first year in each ETF for the first commodity on the market (data from FactSet). Https://t.co/3UnIel6sfX pic.twitter.com/h5Jg6RdgWd

- Matt Hugan (@Matt_Hougan) October 18, 2021

While the bullish filing marks an important milestone for ProShares and the crypto sector, Balchunas warns that it could have an impact on the next level of launching their own Bitcoin (BTC) futures ETF: "Another finding today is that it will make life much more difficult for the next ETF to succeed. Timing is critical. Every day matters because once an ETF is known as 'this' and has a lot of liquidity, it's time for it to be practically impossible to steal.

After the ProShares ETF launched on Tuesday, SEC chairman Gary Gensler explained why he and the SEC prefer ETFs with Bitcoin futures over the spot price of BTC. “BTC futures have been monitored for the past four years by the SEC's sister agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "You have something that's been overseen by federal regulators for the last four years, and that's also under the SEC's jurisdiction under the Investment Companies Act of 1940," he said. The Valkyrie futures ETF is expected to be the second product to join the NYSE BITO this week. He boldly changed his ticker to BTFD, which is slang for Buy The F-ing Dip.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $63,000 on October 19, when the debut of the first regulated Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) marked a solid entry.  Recent data show that BTC/USD hit its highest level since April 16, when the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF traded under the title BITO on the New York Stock Exchange. BITO opened just under $40 and quickly hit a local high of $42.09 on the pre-consolidation open. The power of the launch served to allay fears that the market would return to the United States and be open to what would become the classic "buy the rumour, sell the news" event.

Volatility is still widespread at the time of writing, but commentators are waiting to see what will eventually happen in the early hours of the ETF.

The era of Bitcoin ETFs has arrived!

- Dan Held (@danheld) October 19, 2021

In response to some criticism of the first two ETFs to launch, both based on Bitcoin futures, Kraken growth head Dan Held said similar fears surrounding the futures launch itself in late 2017 were unfounded. In other ETF news, institutional investment giant Grayscale confirmed Tuesday that it has applied to convert its flagship Bitcoin product into an ETF.

Gray Rock Bitcoin Trust, which trades under the ticker GBTC, will trade under the new ticker BTC if approved. “From our point of view, we have never seen greater maturity in the digital asset ecosystem and we believe that this is the next step in the GBTC lifecycle journey,” CEO Michael Sonnenstein said in video comments. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which has traded under the ticker GBTC, would trade under the new ticker BTC should it be approved.

Bitcoin (BTC) “favorite” price signals could be on the verge of becoming bullish – and there is always a payoff, as the data shows. As podcast host Preston Pysch noted on Oct. 18, the long-term to short-term price holder ratio (LTHSTH-RPR) seems poised to set in motion. This may sound verbose, but the LTHSTH-RPR is one of the most accurate Bitcoin price indicators. Its creator, Bitcoin 2021 conference organizer Dylan Leclerc, confirmed his own specter based on his testimony in late September.

“TLDR: The lower the short-term: long-term realized price ratio, the more bullish I become,” he wrote in an explanatory thread on Twitter. "At some point all the bears will die." Now that the indicator has been falling for several months, this is the perfect time for a rebirth - and BTC/USD has always taken advantage of this. Under this guise, LTHSTH-RPR represents a cost base for both long-term and short-term owners. Long-term owners are defined by Glassnode chain analysts as addresses that contain coins that have not been in circulation for at least 155 days.

“If the STH: LTH price ratio increases, it means that the STH cost base is increasing compared to the LTH cost base and vice versa,” added LeClair. “BTC goes up when marginal sellers run out of steam. This is why you see the cost base for LTH stagnating during explosive bulls, while STH prices (many of which are newcomers) skyrocket – there just aren't enough coins to get around.” So far, the cost base for LTH has not been overshadowed by the cost base for STH - if this happens, the current downward trend should end. Everything from on-chain metrics to network fundamentals and even pure math suggests that further upside is imminent for Bitcoin — widely expected from Q4 of the year after a halving event.

Nonetheless, analysts are already monitoring the market for an exit. The impact of this week’s exchange-traded fund launches is also not anticipated to be a market mover in the short term. Bitcoin (BTC) refused to die this week as a drop below $60,000 took almost an hour and the bears burned again. After a rather quiet weekend, there was a typical dip on Sunday 17 October before a dramatic recovery for BTC/USD set just an hour later.

Bitcoin not only maintained its bullish path, but also closed its highest weekly close to date - around $61,500. While markets are preparing for a possible start of trading in the first US exchange-traded funds (ETFs), volatility is almost guaranteed, according to analysts. Five things are to be watched this week as BTC/USD rose to an all-time high and institutional access took a historic leap forward. Just when it seemed that running to the forefront of all time had met a stumbling block, Bitcoin surprised everyone again overnight.

After losing $60,000 on Sunday night, the bulls had no time for BTC to weaken, and before BTC/USD hit $59,000, they started aggressive buying. Hours later, the couple returned not just $60,000 but $62,000 - and stayed there writing. The episode didn't even affect Bitcoin's weekly close, which, despite volatility, was still a high - around $61,500.

"The historic weekly close now means that BTC is well positioned to continue to advance," Rekt Capital trader and analyst said on Monday. He added that the next phase of BTC's price action will be "more volatile" than in previous bullish marketing years in 2013 and 2017. As various analysts celebrate the closing phase of the week, the imminent opening of the US markets can also cause excitement.

On Monday 18 October, the first Bitcoin ETF product of its kind will be showcased with the blessing of US regulators as BTC/USD is less than $3,000 from its new all-time high. For derivatives, funding levels on various exchanges have also fallen since last week, allaying concerns about unsustainable growth, which took a hit. Love it or hate it, this week is all about Bitcoin ETFs. When rumors of a green light for US regulation started circulating last weekend, bitcoin's price rose – and it looks set to continue this week.

After years of rejection, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing to launch two ETF products, both based on CME Group's Bitcoin futures. They are preceded by a lengthy decision-making process that will begin next month regarding physical Bitcoin ETFs with actual BTC as the main asset of great interest to analysts. There is no guarantee that these traditional ETFs will be approved and there are already concerns that the market will be disappointed again. With so many applications to clarify, the SEC still has six months until a breakthrough.

Optimism that the tide will benefit the crypto industry continued this week as Grayscale confirmed it would request the conversion of its flagship Bitcoin product into an ETF. Optimism that the tide will benefit the crypto industry continued this week as Grayscale confirmed it would request the conversion of its flagship Bitcoin product into an ETF. “First of all, most institutional players have direct access to CME futures. “Typically, they will choose to trade ETFs rather than futures primarily to avoid mistracking (against spot prices) futures fees or price variances from Connango or Retreat,” the crypto firm added in a circular to Telegram adding. QCP Capital Trading customers to the channel on Friday.

“Thus, the existence of futures CME-based ETFs overcomes the fundamental benefits of ETFs; to track the spot price as closely as possible. " The basics of the Bitcoin network continue to impress this week and issues lead the pack. Perhaps the most significant feature of Bitcoin is its increasing strength, and on Tuesday, October 19th, it is expected to close for its seventh straight gain. It was the last time in 2019. For the first time since June, this increase will cost more than 20 trillion euros of trouble. This is despite some changes in the hash rate, with estimates now dropping to 123 echash per second (EH/s) and reaching over 140 EH/s this month.

While the overall uptrend is still intact, there is little concern that the United States is now home to most of the Bitcoin mining capacity. While Bitcoin price predictions focus on what might happen in the fourth quarter of the year, some are already looking further afield - using the data to draw more striking conclusions. One analyst drawing the pink picture for 2022 is Willie Woo, creator of the Woobull data source and best known for his research on Bitcoin market cycles.

Over the weekend, Woo highlighted the growing shortage of bitcoin as possible fuel for continued price cuts. Historically, he found that reduced supply combined with more than supply remaining in the hands of unwilling traders created a strong bullish signal. The indicator “long term surprise to owner owners” clearly shows such a scenario that has played out many times in Bitcoin history.

"The technical name of this chart is '2022 will be a good year,'" he told his Twitter followers. With so much excitement about a possible high point in Bitcoin's price this year and how high it could go, some analysts are already turning to the other side - a bear market. Historically, nothing has gone straight, and Bitcoin is no exception. Throughout the year, each half cycle marks a high price after half of the block funding, followed by a low price in the middle of the cycle. This cycle, say some well-known market participants, will be no different. As such, price peaks will be followed by continued declines in both 2014 and 2018.

For popular Twitter analyst TechDev, that floor should be higher than the last - up to $60,000 - but the process should start before 2021 is complete. “I want an extended cycle. Who doesn't? But there's nothing I've seen in Macro-PA that suggests this is going to happen,” he warned his followers over the weekend. "Watch your appearance. RSI channel 2 weeks, RVI 92-93. If they get hit, I will come out. Ignore them in hopes of a new paradigm and you're more likely to be kicked out by those who don't. " Some of the attached diagrams clearly show how the Bitcoin relative strength index for a two-week period captures each peak value well. Rekt Capital's Twitter partners also took the opportunity to remind followers and customers of the need to make a profit.

“People think that BTC will never see an -80% bear market again because it is now mainstream and too mature as an asset,” he said. "Don't forget that there was a -53% correction a few months ago. The bear market average is -84.5%. This is very likely after this bull market." However, the weekend provided an upbeat forecast for the bear market, with Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead saying the bottom would be "shallow" than others. Other measures are reportedly looking for a good time to continue into 2022, even for Bitcoin. Earlier this month, PlanB, the developer of a stock-based Bitcoin price prediction model, announced that they have at least six months left in the upside phase.

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