Cryptocurrencies are increasingly pervading the banking sector and the financial industry in general. Does this mean that the days of the fiat currencies are already numbered?
Black Swan Theory
Over the next 10 years, fiat currencies will break - this is the opinion of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the scientist and essayist and the author of the famous book "Black Swan:The Impact of the Highly Improbable" published in 2007. This gave birth to the theory of the black swan. The theory, which describes the surprise arising from a given event, but after some time turning the surprise into rationalization of what happened.
When Taleb was asked about what could happen in the next ten years in the world, he indicated 12 things. While taking into account the speed of changes, however, he emphasized that his prediction is certainly based on probability. Among the factors regarded as "endangered" in the next decade, he lists, among others: a desktop computer, national airlines, CNN television and fiat currencies.
The group of factors that Taleb mentions correlates with his article about which of them can survive in a world where technology, institutions, ideas, theories and other "non-perishable" elements are increasingly important.
Cryptocurrencies according to Taleb
If not fiat currencies, is it time for cryptocurrencies? In the preface to one of the books on Bitcoin, Taleb refers to it as a "perfect idea." In his opinion, it meets the needs of the entire financial system due to its decentralized nature. There is no owner, jurisdiction or management.
While referring to BTC, he also referred to his own theory of the black swan - BTC is multidimensional, its future cannot be predicted, it can have severe consequences, is difficult to come by and has a great impact on society.
Oswald Grübel, a German banker who was CEO at Credit Suisse and CEO at Swiss bank UBS, commented on what Taleb said:
Negative interest rates are crazy. That means money is not worth anything any more.